Christian Franzke

Associate Professor starting from March 2021


Phone: +49 (0)1749703015

Research Interests

  • Atmospheric Dynamics
  • Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Dynamics and Predictability• Climate Change
  • Weather and Climate Extreme Events
  • Economic Damages of Climate Change


2018 Teaching Certificate “Good Teaching Practice” 2018, University of Hamburg
2016 Habilitation, University of Hamburg, Germany (In Germany the Habilitation is a certification of excellence in research and teaching)
2001 PhD (Dr. Rer. Nat.) in Natural Sciences; University of Hamburg, Germany
1998 Diplom in Meteorology, University of Hamburg, Germany
1995 Vordiplom in Meteorology, University of Karlsruhe, Germany

Work Experience

03/2021 Associate Professor: Pusan National University, Busan, South Korea
07/2020 present Research Associate: School of Engineering and Science, Jacobs University, Bremen, Germany, Germany
2017 2021 Privatdozent (PD), Meteorological Institute, University of Hamburg, Germany (In Germany, the title Privatdozent indicates that the holder has permission to teach and examine students independently without being a professor.)
08/2013 06/2020 Senior Research Scientist, Meteorological Institute and Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability, University of Hamburg, Germany
07/2007 07/2013 Senior Research Scientist, British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UK
07/2006 06/2007 Postgraduate Scientist, Institute for Mathematics Applied to Geosciences, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
01/2003 06/2006 Postdoctoral Fellow, Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences and Center for Atmosphere-Ocean Science, New York University, New York, USA
09/2001 12/2002 Research Associate, Environment Institute, The Pennsylvania State University, State College, USA


Peer Review Publications (* denotes supervised students)

  1. Franzke, C., 2020: Towards the Development of Economic Damage Functions for Weather and Climate Extremes. Ecol. Economics. submitted.
  2. Ma, Q. and C. Franzke, 2020: The role of transient eddies and diabatic heating in the maintenance of European heat waves: a nonlinear stationary wave perspective. Climate Dyn., submitted.
  3. Sinha, B., B. Topliss, M. Hughes, A. Blaker, J. Hirschi, C. Franzke, S. Josey, V. Ivchenko and B. Moat, 2020: Impact of Arctic climate change on North Atlantic Ocean Circulation: a model study. Clim. Dyn, submitted.
  4. Nian, D., N. Yuan, K. Ying, G. Liu, Z. Fu, Y. Qi and C. Franzke, 2020: Identifying the sources of seasonal predictability based on climate memory analysis and variance decomposition. Clim. Dyn., submitted.
  5. Önskog, T., C. Franzke and A. Hannachi, 2020: Nonlinear time series models for the North Atlantic Oscillation. Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., accepted.
  6. Franzke, C. and H. Torello i Sentelles, 2020: Risk of Extreme High Fatalities due to Weather and Climate Hazards and Its Connection to Large-Scale Climate Variability, Clim. Change, accepted.
  7. Hu, G. and C. Franzke, 2020: Evaluation of daily precipitation extremes in reanalysis and gridded observation-based datasets over Germany. Geophys. Res. Lett., accepted.
  8. Huang, Y., C. Franzke, N. Yuan and Z. Fu, 2020: Systematic identification of causal relations in high-dimensional chaotic systems: Application to Stratopshere- Troposphere coupling. Clim. Dyn., in press.
  9. Gugole, F. and C. Franzke, 2020: Spatial Covariance Modeling for Stochastic Subgrid-Scale Parameterizations Using Dynamic Mode Decomposition. J. Adv. Mod. Earth Sys.,12, e2020MS002115.
  10. Czupryna, M., C. Franzke, S. Hohkamp and J. Scheffran, 2020: Agent-based Modelling for Integrated Assessment of Climate Change. J. Artifical Soc. Social Sim., 23, 7.
  11. Yang, L., C. Franzke and Z. Fu, 2020: Evaluation of the ability of regional climate models and a statistical model to represent the spatial characteristics of extreme precipitation. Int. J. Climatol., in press.
  12. Huang, Y., Z. Fu and C. Franzke, 2020: Detecting causality from time series in a machine learning framework. Chaos, 30, 063116.
  13. Franzke, C., S. Barbosa, R. Blender, H.-B. Fredriksen, T. Laepple, F. Lambert, T. Nilsen, K. Rypdal, M. Rypdal, M. Scotto, S. Vannitsem, N. Watkins, L. Yang*, and N. Yuan, 2020: The Structure of Climate Variability Across Scales. Rev. Geophys., 58, e2019RG000657.
  14. Haug, O., T. L. Thorarinsdottir, S. H. Sørbye and C. Franzke, 2020: Spatial trend analysis of gridded temperature data at varying spatial scales. Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 6, 1-12.
  15. Yang*, L., C. Franzke, Z. Fu, 2020: Power-Law Behavior of Hourly Precipitation Intensity and Dry Spell Duration over the US. Int. J. Climatol., 40, 2429-2444.
  16. Franzke, C. and M. Czupryna, 2020: Probabilistic Assessment and Projections of US Weather and Climate Risks and Economic Damages. Climatic Change, 158, 503-515.
  17. Dwivedi, S., C. Franzke and F. Lunkeit, 2019: Energetically Consistent Stochastic and Deterministic Kinetic Energy Backscatter Schemes for Atmospheric Models. Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 145, 3376-3386.
  18. De Luca P., C. Harpham, R. L. Wilby, C. Franzke, G. C. Leckebusch, J. K. Hillier, 2019: Implications of future weather pattern persistence and frequency for multi- hazards in the British Isles. Atmosphere, 10, 577.
  19. Gugole*, F. and C. Franzke, 2019: Numerical Development and Evaluation of an Energy Conserving Conceptual Stochastic Climate Model. Math. Clim. Weather Forecast., 5, 45-64.
  20. Franzke, C., D. Jelic, S. Lee and S. Feldstein, 2019: Systematic Decomposition of the MJO and its Northern Hemispheric Extra-Tropical Response into Rossby and Inertio-Gravity Components. Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 145, 1147-1164.
  21. Franzke, C., M. Oliver, J. Rademacher and G. Badin, 2019: Systematic multi-scale methods for geophysical flows. In Energy transfers in Atmosphere and Ocean. Eds. C. Eden and A. Iske. Springer book, 1-51.
  22. Risbey, J., T. O’Kane, D. Monselesan, C. Franzke and I. Horenko, 2018: On the dynamics of Austral heat waves. J. Geophys. Res., 122. DOI: 10.1002/2017JD027222.
  23. Önskog, T., C. Franzke, and A. Hannachi, 2018, Predictability and non-Gaussian Characteristics of the North Atlantic Oscillation. J. Climate, 31, 537-554, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0101.1.
  24. Hu*, G. and C. Franzke, 2017: Data assimilation in a multi-scale model. Math. Clim. Weather Forecast., 3, 118–139.
  25. Gao, M. and C. Franzke, 2017: Quantile regression-based spatio-temporal analysis of extreme temperature change in China. J. Climate, 30, 9897–9914.
  26. Bodai, T. and C. Franzke, 2017: Predictability of fat-tailed extremes. Phys. Rev. E, 96, 032120. DOI:
  27. Graves*, T., R. B. Gramacy, N. W. Watkins and C. Franzke, 2017: A brief history of long memory. Entropy, 19, 437; doi:10.3390/e19090437.
  28. Franzke, C., 2017: Impacts of a Changing Climate on Economic Damages and Insurance. Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, 1, 95-110. doi:10.1007/s41885-017-0004-3.
  29. Hannachi, A., D. Straus, C. Franzke, S. Corti and T. Woollings, 2017: Low Frequency Nonlinearity and Regime Behavior in the Northern Hemisphere Extra- Tropical Atmosphere. Rev. Geophys., 55, 199-234.
  30. Berner, J., U. Achatz, L. Batte, A. De Li Camara, H. Christensen, M. Colangeli, D. Coleman, D. Crommelin, S. Dolaptchiev, C. Franzke, P. Friederichs, P. Imkeller, H. Järvinen, S. Juricke, V. Kitsios, F. Lott, V. Lucarini, S. Mahajan, T. Palmer, C. Penland, M. Sakradzija, J.-S. von Storch, A. Weisheimer, M. Weniger, P. Williams and J.-I. Yano, 2017: Stochastic Parameterization: Towards a new view of Weather and Climate Models. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., 98, 565-587.
  31. Blender, R., C. Raible and C. Franzke, 2017: Vorticity and geopotential height extremes in ERA interim data in boreal winters. Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 143, 634- 640.
  32. O’Kane, T. J., D. P. Monselesan, J S. Risbey, I. Horenko and C. Franzke, 2017: On memory, dimension, and atmospheric teleconnection patterns. Math. Clim. Weather Forecast, 3, 1-27.
  33. Franzke, C., 2017: Extremes in dynamic-stochastic systems. Chaos, 012101. DOI: 10.1063/1.4973541 (Invited review).
  34. Graves*, T., C. Franzke, N. Watkins, R. Gramacy and E. Tindale, 2017: Systematic Bayesian inference of the Long-Range Dependence and Heavy-Tail distribution parameters. Physica A, 473, 60-71. DOI:
  35. Franzke, C., S. Lee and S. B. Feldstein, 2017: Evaluating Arctic warming mechanism in CMIP5 models. Clim. Dyn., 48, 3247-3260. doi: 10.1007/s00382-016- 3262-9.
  36. Gottwald, G., D. Crommelin and C. Franzke, 2017: Stochastic Climate Theory. p. 209-240. Nonlinear and Stochastic Climate Dynamics, Edited by C. Franzke and T. O’Kane. Cambridge University Press.
  37. Feldstein, S. and C. Franzke, 2017: Atmospheric Teleconnection Patterns. p. 54- 104. Nonlinear and Stochastic Climate Dynamics, Edited by C. Franzke and T. O’Kane. Cambridge University Press.
  38. O’Kane T., J. Risbey, D. Monselesan, I. Horenko and C. Franzke, 2015: On the dynamics of persistent states and their secular trends in the waveguides of the Southern Hemisphere troposphere. Clim. Dyn., 46, 3567-3597.
  39. Luo, D., Y. Xiao, Y. Yao, A. Dai, I. Simmonds and C. Franzke, 2016: Impact of Ural Blocking on Winter Warm Arctic-Cold Eurasian Anomalies. Part I: Roles of Blocking and Warming Trend. J. Climate, 29, 3925-3947.
  40. Luo, D., Y. Xiao, Y. Diao, A. Dai, C. Franzke and I. Simmonds, 2016: Impact of Ural Blocking on Winter Warm Arctic-Cold Eurasian Anomalies. Part II: The link to the North Atlantic Oscillation, J. Climate, 29, 3948-3971.
  41. Ludescher, J., A. Bunde, C. Franzke and H. J. Schellnhuber, 2015: Long-term persistence enhances uncertainty about anthropogenic warming of West Antarctica. Clim. Dyn.,46, 263-271.
  42. Graves*, T., R. B. Gramacy, C. Franzke and N. W. Watkins, 2015: Efficient Bayesian inference for long memory processes, Nonlin. Proc. Geophys., 22, 679- 700, 2015.
  43. Zagar, N. and C. Franzke, 2015: Systematic Decomposition of the Madden-Julian Oscillation into Balanced and Inertio-Gravity Components. Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 6829-6835.
  44. Luo, D., L. Zhong and C. Franzke, 2015: Inverse energy cascades in an eddy- induced NAO-Type flow: Scale interaction mechanism. J. Atmos. Sci., 72, 3417- 3448.
  45. Franzke, C., T. O’Kane, D. Monselesan, J. Risbey and I. Horenko, 2015: Systematic Attribution of Secular Southern Hemispheric Circulation Trends with Observational Forcing Data, Nonlin. Proc. Geophys., 22, 513-525. doi:10.5194/npg- 22-513-2015.
  46. Franzke, C., 2015: Local Trend Disparities Of European Minimum And Maximum Temperature Extremes. Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 6479-6484.
  47. Lin, Y. and C. Franzke, 2015: Scale-dependency of the global mean temperature trend and its implication for the hiatus of recent global warming. Scientific Reports, 5, 12971.
  48. Woollings, T., C. Franzke, D. Hodson, B. Dong, E. Barnes, C. Raible and J. Pinto, 2015: Contrasting interannual and multidecadal NAO variability. Climate Dynamics, 45 539-556.
  49. Franzke, C., S. Osprey, P. Davini and N. Watkins, 2015: A Dynamical Systems Explanation of the Hurst Phenomenom and Atmospheric Low-Frequency Variability, Scientific Reports, 5, 9068: doi: 10.1038/srep09068.
  50. Risbey, J., T. O’Kane, D. Monselesan, C. Franzke and I. Horenko, 2015: Metastability of Northern Hemisphere teleconnection modes, J. Atmos. Sci., 72, 35- 54.
  51. Peavoy*, D., C. Franzke and G. O. Roberts, 2015: Physics constrained parameter estimation of stochastic differential equations. Comp. Stat. Data Ana., 83, 182-199.
  52. Franzke, C., T. O’Kane, J. Berner, P. Williams and V. Lucarini, 2015: Stochastic Climate Theory and Modelling. WIREs Climate Change (Invited review), 6, 63-78.
  53. Cnossen, I. and C. Franzke, 2014: The role of the Sun in long-term change in the F2 peak ionosphere: new insights from Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) and numerical modelling. J. Geophys. Res., 119, 8610-8623.
  54. Kim, S.-W., K. Song, S.-Y. Kim, S.-W. Son, C. Franzke, 2014: Linear and nonlinear trends of extreme temperatures in Korea. Atmosphere (in Korean), 24, 379-390.
  55. Franzke, C., 2014: Nonlinear Climate Change. Nature Climate Change, 4, 423– 424.
  56. Bunde, A., J. Ludescher, C. Franzke, and U. Büntgen, 2014: How significant is West Antarctic warming? Nature Geoscience, 7, 246-247.
  57. Varotsos, C., C. Franzke, M. Efstathiou and A. Degermendzhi, 2014: Evidence for two abrupt warming events of SST in the last century. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 116, 51-60, DOI: 10.1007/s00704-013-0935-8
  58. Woollings, T., C. Czuchniki and C. Franzke, 2014: Twentieth century jet stream variability. Quart. J. R. Meterol. Soc., 140, 783-791. DOI: 10.1002/qj.2197
  59. Franzke, C., 2013: Predictions of Critical Transitions with Non-Stationary Reduced Order Models, Physica D, 262, 35-47. DOI: 10.1016/j.physd.2013.07.013
  60. Capparelli*, V., C. Franzke, A. Vecchio, M. P. Freeman, N. W. Watkins and V. Carbone, 2013: A spatio-temporal analysis of US station temperature trends over the last century. J. Geophys. Res., 118, 7427-7434. DOI: 10.1002/jgrd.50551
  61. Lu, H., C. Franzke, O. Martius, M. J. Jarvis and T. Philips, 2013: Solar Wind Dynamic Pressure Effect on Planetary Wave Propagation and Rossby Wave Breaking. J. Geophys. Res., 118, 4476-4493. DOI: 10.1002/jgrd.50374
  62. T. J. O’Kane, J. S. Risbey, C. Franzke, I. Horenko and D. P. Monselesan, 2013: The metastability of the mid-latitude Southern Hemisphere circulation. ANZIAM J., 54, C233-C249.
  63. C. Franzke, 2013: A novel method to test for significant trends in extreme values in serially dependent time series. Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 1391-1395. DOI: 10.1002/grl.50301 (This paper was chosen as an AGU Research Spotlight).
  64. Franzke, C., 2013: Significant reduction of cold temperature extremes in the Antarctic Peninsula at Faraday/Vernadsky Station, Int. J. Clim., 33, 1070-1078. DOI: 10.1002/joc.3490.
  65. Franzke, C., 2013: Circulation Regimes and Extreme Events in the North Atlantic. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 371, 20110471. (This study has attracted wide public interest. See Press Release and here).
  66. T. J. O’Kane, J. S. Risbey, C. Franzke, I. Horenko and D. P. Monselesan, 2013: Changes in the meta-stability of the mid-latitude Southern Hemisphere circulation and the utility of non-stationary cluster analysis and split flow indices as diagnostic tools. J. Atmos. Sci., 70, 824-842. doi: 10.1175/JAS-D-12-028.1.
  67. Franzke, C., 2012: On the statistical significance of surface air temperature trends in the Eurasian Arctic region. Geophys. Res. Lett., L23705, doi: 10.1029/2012GL054244.
  68. Franzke, C., 2012: Predictability of Extreme Events in a Nonlinear Stochastic- Dynamical Model. Phys. Rev. E, 85, DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevE.85.031134.
  69. Franzke, C., 2012: Nonlinear Trends, Long-Range Dependence and Climate Noise Properties of Surface Air Temperature. J. Climate, 25, 4172-4183. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00293.1
  70. Franzke, C., T. Graves*, N. W. Watkins, R. B. Gramacy and C. Hughes*, 2012: Robustness of Estimators of Long-Range Dependence and Self-Similarity under non-Gaussianity. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 370, 1250-1267, doi:10.1098/rsta.2011.0349(Invited paper).
  71. Franzke, C., T. Woollings and O. Martius, 2011: Persistent Circulation Regimes and Preferred Regime Transitions in the North Atlantic. J. Atmos. Sci., 68, 2809- 2825. doi: 10.1175/JAS-D-11-046.1
  72. Franzke, C., S. B. Feldstein and S. Lee, 2011: Synoptic Analysis of the Pacific- North American Teleconnection Pattern. Quart. J. R. Meterol. Soc., 137, 329-346.
  73. Franzke, C. and T. Woollings, 2011: On the Persistence and Predictability Properties of North Atlantic Climate Variability. J. Climate, 24, 466-472. doi: 10.1175/2010JCLI3739.1
  74. Peavoy*, D. J. and C. Franzke, 2010: Bayesian analysis of rapid climate change during the last glacial using Greenland d18O data. Climate of the Past, doi:10.5194/cpd-6-1209-2010.
  75. Franzke, C., 2010: Long-range Dependence and Climate Noise Characteristics of Antarctic Temperature Data. J. Climate, 23, 6074-6081. doi: 10.1175/2010JCLI3654.1
  76. Thomas, E. R., P. Dennis, T. Bracegirdle and C. Franzke, 2009: Ice core evidence for significant 100-year regional warming on the Antarctic Peninsula. Geophys. Res. Lett., doi:10.1029/2009GL04104. (This paper was chosen as Editors highlight and was the 3rd most downloaded GRL paper in the first week after publication.)
  77. Majda, A. J., C. Franzke and D. Crommelin, 2009: Normal forms for reduced stochastic climate models. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, doi:10.1073/pnas.0900173106.
  78. Franzke, C., 2009: Multi-Scale Analysis of Teleconnection Indices: Climate Noise and Nonlinear Trend Analysis. Nonlin. Proc. Geophys., 16, 65-76.
  79. Franzke, C., I. Horenko, A. J. Majda and R. Klein, 2009: Systematic Metastable Atmospheric Regime Identification in a AGCM. J. Atmos. Sci., 66, 1997-2012. Doi:10.1175/2009JAS2939.1
  80. Franzke, C., R. Blender, K. Fraedrich and F. Lunkeit, 2008: Dynamische Antriebsmechanismen der NAO. Promet, 34, 107-111.
  81. Majda, A. J., C. Franzke and B. Khouider, 2008: An Applied Mathematics Perspective on Stochastic Modelling for Climate. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 366, 2429- 2455.
  82. Franzke, C., D. T. Crommelin, A. Fischer and A. J. Majda, 2008: A Hidden Markov Model Perspective on Regimes and Metastability in Atmospheric Flows. J. Climate, 21, 1740-1757.
  83. Franzke, C., A. J. Majda, and G. Branstator, 2007: The Origin of Nonlinear Signatures of Planetary Wave Dynamics: Mean Phase Space Tendencies and Contributions from Non-Gaussianity. J. Atmos. Sci., 64, 3987-4003.
  84. Feldstein, S. B., and C. Franzke, 2006: Are the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Northern Annular Mode Distinguishable? J. Atmos. Sci., 63, 2915-2930.
  85. Majda, A. J., C. Franzke, A. Fischer, and D. T. Crommelin, 2006: Distinct Atmospheric Regimes despite nearly Gaussian Statistics – A Paradigm Model. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 103, 8309-8314.
  86. Franzke, C., and A. J. Majda 2006: Low-Order Stochastic Mode Reduction for a Prototype Atmospheric GCM. J. Atmos. Sci. 63, 457-479.
  87. Franzke, C., and S. B. Feldstein, 2005: The Continuum and Dynamics of Northern Hemisphere Teleconnection Patterns. J. Atmos. Sci., 62, 3250-3267.
  88. Franzke, C., A. J. Majda and E. Vanden-Eijnden, 2005: Low-order stochastic mode reduction for a realistic barotropic model climate. J. Atmos. Sci., 62, 1722-1745.
  89. Franzke, C., S. Lee, and S. B. Feldstein, 2004: Is the North Atlantic Oscillation a breaking wave? J. Atmos. Sci., 61, 145-160. (The corresponding press release has been widely picked up by various news media; see press release at 2002/northatlanticoscillation.html)
  90. Franzke, C., 2002: Dynamics of low-frequency variability: Barotropic mode. J. Atmos. Sci., 59, 2909-2897.
  91. Franzke, C., K. Fraedrich and F. Lunkeit, 2001: Teleconnection and low-frequency variability in idealized experiments with two storm tracks. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 127, 1321-1340.
  92. Franzke, C., K. Fraedrich and F. Lunkeit, 2000: Low-frequency variability in a simplified atmospheric global circulation model: Storm-track induced ‘spatial resonance’. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 126, 2691-2708.


Other Publications:

  1. Franzke, C. and N. Yuan, 2017: Why is scaling important? Past Global Changes Magazine, 25, 134-135.
  2. Franzke, C., 2017:Report of 1st CVAS-PAGES workshop: What do we know about multicentennial, multimillenial variability? PAGES magazine.
  3. Franzke, C., 2016: Dynamics of Atmospheric Variability on Time Scales from Days to Decades. Habilitation treatise. University of Hamburg.
  4. Franzke, C., 2012: Climate of Change? Planet Earth, Autumn issue.
  5. Franzke, C. and D. J. Peavoy*, 2010: Identification of Climate Switching during the Last Glacial using Bayesian Statistical Methods. In Mathematical Theory and Modelling in Atmosphere-Ocean-Science. Eds. A. J. Majda, B. Stevens and R. Klein. Mathematisches Forschungsinstitut Oberwolfach, Report No. 34/2010. doi:10.4171/OWR/2010/34
  6. Majda, A. J., Franzke and B. Khouider, 2009: An Applied Mathematics Perspective on Stochastic Modelling for Climate. In Stochastic Physics and Climate Modelling. Eds. T. Palmer and P. Williams. pp. 73-104 Cambridge University Press.
  7. Franzke, C., 2001: Stormtracks und Telekonnektionen in idealisierten Experimenten. University of Hamburg, Dissertation, 104pp. (in German). Available at: