Polar Sea Ice Forecasting Across Scales: Antarctic Fast Ice and Arctic Navigation

Seminar by Dr. Emilia Kyung Jin from Korea Polar Research Institute (KOPRI)

03 April 2026
KST 10:00 – 11:30

The Seminar is being held in Room 1010 (Jasmin) – Integrated mechanical engineering building. Click here for the campus map.

The rapid decline of polar sea ice under accelerating global warming is increasingly recognized as a key factor influencing albedo feedback and large-scale ocean circulation. In particular, recent sea ice minima have fallen well below CMIP6 projections, raising concerns about potential shifts in the polar climate system.
In response, the Korea Polar Research Institute (KOPRI) is conducting targeted research to better understand the physical mechanisms driving sea ice variability and to improve forecasting capabilities for both polar regions.
For the Antarctic, Project FAST (Forecast of Antarctic Sea-ice Trends) focuses on the dynamics of fast ice, which plays an important role in stabilizing coastal ice shelves. The project examines how fast ice responds to large-scale atmospheric variability, including the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and ENSO, with the goal of improving estimates of coastal thermodynamic mass balance. In addition, Mixed Layer Depth (MLD) and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) data are being incorporated into a hybrid modeling framework that combines physical understanding with data-driven approaches. This work contributes to the international SIPN South initiative and supports ongoing climate monitoring efforts.
In the Arctic, despite the overall decline in sea ice extent, navigational risks are increasing due to more variable ice conditions and the occurrence of high-wave events. Beginning in 2026, Project SAFE-SEA will develop high-resolution environmental datasets aligned with the IMO Polar Code. These datasets will be used to produce monthly and annual navigation scenarios for the Northern Sea Route (NSR), with the aim of supporting safer and more reliable vessel operations.
Together, these efforts reflect a shift from descriptive monitoring toward a more quantitative assessment of climate-related risks in polar regions.