Axel Timmermann

Axel Timmermann

Director & Distinguished Professor


Phone: +82-51-510-2890

Research Interests

  • El Niño
  • Human migration and climate
  • Climate/carbon cycle interactions
  • Glacial Dynamics
  • Abrupt Climate Change
  • Sea level rise
  • Ice-sheet instabilities
  • Climate Predictability


1999 Ph.D. Meteorology. University of Hamburg, Germany
1995 M.S. Theoretical Physics. University of Marburg, Germany
1992 B.S. Physics. University of Marburg, Germany

Work Experience

2017 Director of the IBS Center for Climate Physics, Pusan National University
2017 Distinguished Professor, Pusan National University
2009 2016 Full Professor in Physical Oceanography, University of Hawaii
2004 2009 Associate Professor in Physical Oceanography, University of Hawaii
2001 2005 Associate Researcher, IfM-GEOMAR, University of Kiel, Germany
2000 2001 Postdoc, International Pacific Research Center, Hawaii, USA
1998 2000 Postdoc, Royal Dutch Meteorological Institute, the Netherlands
1995 1998 Research Assistant, Max Planck Institute of Meteorology, Hamburg

Fellowships, Awards, and Honors

2020 Highly Cited Researcher (Environment and Ecology) of Web of Science, Clarivate Analytics
2019 Highly Cited Researcher (Cross-Field) of Web of Science, Clarivate Analytics
2018 Scientist of the Year by the Korean Science Journalist Association
2018 Highly Cited Researcher (Cross-Field) of Web of Science, Clarivate Analytics
2017 Milankovic Medal of the European Geosciences Union
2015 Elected Fellow of the American Geophysical Union
2015 University of Hawaii, Regents' Medal for Excellence in Research
2007 Rosenstiel Award of the Rosenstiel School for Marine and Atmospheric Science (RSMAS), Miami


  1. Reduced tropical cyclone densities and ocean effects due to anthropogenic greenhouse warming, Jung-Eun Chu, Sun-Seon Lee, Axel Timmermann, Christian Wengel, Malte F. Stuecker, Ryohei Yamaguchi, Science Advances, 6(51), eabd5109, doi: 10.1126/sciadv.abd5109, 2020
  2. ENSO in a Changing Climate: Challenges, Paleo-Perspectives, and Outlook, Christina Karamperidou, Malte F Stuecker, Axel Timmermann, Kyung-Sook Yun, Sun-Seon Lee, Fei‐Fei Jin, Agus Santoso, Michael J McPhaden, Wenju Cai, El Niño Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate 253, 473, ISBN: 978-1-119-54812-6, doi: 10.1002/9781119548164.ch21, 2020
  3. ENSO Response to Greenhouse Forcing, Wenju Cai, Agus Santoso, Guojian Wang, Lixin Wu, Mat Collins, Matthieu Lengaigne, Scott Power, Axel Timmermann, El Niño Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate 253, 289, ISBN: 978-1-119-54812-6, doi: 10.1002/9781119548164.ch13, 2020
  4. A low order dynamical model for runoff predictability, Roman Olson, Axel Timmermann, June-Yi Lee, Soon-Il An, Climate Dynamics, doi: 10.1007/s00382-020-05479-w, 2020
  5. Fokker–Planck dynamics of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Soon-Il An, Soong-Ki Kim, Axel Timmermann, Scientific Reports, 10, 16283, doi: 10.1038/s41598-020-73449-7, 2020
  6. Atmospheric nitrous oxide variations on centennial time scales during the past two millennia, Y. Ryu, J. Ahn, J.‐W. Yang, E. J. Brook, A. Timmermann, T. Blunier, S. Hur, S.‐J. Kim, Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 34(9), e2020GB006568, doi: 10.1029/2020GB006568, 2020
  7. Simulating Marine Isotope Stage 7 with a coupled climate-ice sheet model, Dipayan Choudhury, Axel Timmermann, Fabian Schloesser, Malte Heinemann, David Pollard, Climate of the Past, doi: 10.5194/cp-2020-46, 2020
  8. Anthropogenic intensification of surface ocean interannual pCO2 variability, Angeles Gallego, Axel Timmermann, Tobias Friedrich, Richard E. Zeebe, Geophysical Research Letters, 47 (13), e2020GL087104, doi: 10.1029/2020GL087104, 2020
  9. Quantifying the potential causes of Neanderthal extinction: abrupt climate change versus competition and interbreeding, Axel Timmermann, Quaternary Science Reviews, doi: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2020.106331, 2020
  10. Future changes of summer monsoon characteristics and evaporative demand over Asia in CMIP6 simulations, Kyung‐Ja Ha, Suyeon Moon, Axel Timmermann, Daeha Kim, Geophysical Research Letters, 47 (8), e2020GL087492, doi: 10.1029/2020GL087492, 2020
  11. Timing and magnitude of Southern Ocean sea ice/carbon cycle feedbacks, Karl Stein, Axel Timmermann, Eun Young Kwon, Tobias Friedrich, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 117 (9), 4498-4504, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1908670117, 2020
  12. Using Late Pleistocene sea surface temperature reconstructions to constrain future greenhouse warming, Tobias Friedrich, Axel Timmermann, Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 530, doi: 10.1016/j.epsl.2019.115911, 2020
  13. Strong remote control of future equatorial warming by off-equatorial forcing, Malte F Stuecker, Axel Timmermann, Fei-Fei Jin, Cristian Proistosescu, Sarah M. Kang, Doyeon Kim, Kyung-Sook Yun, Eui-Seok Chung, Jung-Eun Chu, Cecilia M. Bitz, Kyle C. Armour, Michiya Hayashi, Nature Climate Change, 10, 124-129, doi: 10.1038/s41558-019-0667-6, 2020
  14. Climate-human interaction associated with southeast Australian megafauna extinction patterns, Frédérik Saltré, Joël Chadoeuf, Katharina J. Peters, Matthew C. McDowell, Tobias Friedrich, Axel Timmermann, Sean Ulm & Corey J. A. Bradshaw, Nature Communications, 10, 5311, doi: 10.1038/s41467-019-13277-0, 2019
  15. Human origins in a southern African palaeo-wetland and first migrations, Eva K. F. Chan, Axel Timmermann, Benedetta F. Baldi, Andy E. Moore, Ruth J. Lyons, Sun-Seon Lee, Anton M. F. Kalsbeek, Desiree C. Petersen, Hannes Rautenbach, Hagen E. A. Förtsch, M. S. Riana Bornman, Vanessa M. Hayes, Nature, 575 (7781), 185-159, doi: 10.1038/s41586-019-1714-1, 2019
  16. Nonlinear response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to late Quaternary sea level and climate forcing, Michelle Tigchelaar, Axel Timmermann, Tobias Friedrich, Malte Heinemann, David Pollard, The Cryosphere, doi: 10.5194/tc-13-2615-2019, 2019
  17. Mediterranean winter rainfall in phase with African monsoons during the past 1.36 million years, Bernd Wagner, Hendrik Vogel, Alexander Francke, Tobias Friedrich, Timme Donders, Jack H. Lacey, Melanie J. Leng, Eleonora Regattieri, Laura Sadori, Thomas Wilke, Giovanni Zanchetta, Christian Albrecht, Adele Bertini, Nathalie Combourieu-Nebout, Aleksandra Cvetkoska, Biagio Giaccio, Andon Grazhdani, Torsten Hauffe, Jens Holtvoeth, Sebastien Joannin, Elena Jovanovska, Janna Just, Katerina Kouli, Ilias Kousis, Andreas Koutsodendris, Sebastian Krastel, Markus Lagos, Niklas Leicher, Zlatko Levkov, Katja Lindhorst, Alessia Masi, Martin Melles, Anna M. Mercuri, Sebastien Nomade, Norbert Nowaczyk, Konstantinos Panagiotopoulos, Odile Peyron, Jane M. Reed, Leonardo Sagnotti, Gaia Sinopoli, Björn Stelbrink, Roberto Sulpizio, Axel Timmermann, Slavica Tofilovska, Paola Torri, Friederike Wagner-Cremer, Thomas Wonik, Xiaosen Zhang, Nature, 573 (7773), 256-260, doi: 10.1038/s41586-019-1529-0, 2019
  18. Drivers of Late Pleistocene human survival and dispersal: an agent-based modeling and machine learning approach, Ali R. Vahdati, John David Weissmann, Axel Timmermann, Marcia S.Ponce de León, Christoph P.E.Zollikofer, Quaternary Science Reviews, 221, doi: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2019.105867, 2019
  19. North American April tornado occurrences linked to global sea surface temperature anomalies, Jung-Eun Chu, Axel Timmermann, June-Yi Lee, Science Advances, doi: 10.1126/sciadv.aaw9950, 2019
  20. Antarctic iceberg impacts on future Southern Hemisphere Climate, Fabian Schloesser, Tobias Friedrich, Axel Timmermann, Robert M. DeConto, David Pollard, Nature Climate Change, 9(9), 672-677, doi: 10.1038/s41558-019-0546-1, 2019
  21. A drift-free decadal climate prediction system for the Community Earth System Model, Yoshimitsu Chikamoto, Axel Timmermann, Matthew J. Widlansky, Shaoqing Zhang, Magdalena A. Balmaseda, Journal of Climate, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0788.1, 2019
  22. Saharan green corridors and Middle Pleistocene hominin dispersals across the Eastern Desert, Sudan, M. Masojć, A. Nassr, J. Y. Kim, J. Krupa-Kurzynowska, Y. K. Sohn, M. Szmit, J. C. Kim, J. S. Kim, H. W. Choi, M. Wieczorek, A. Timmermann, Journal of Human Evolution, 130, 141-150, doi: 10.1016/j.jhevol.2019.01.004, 2019
  23. Calibration uncertainties of tropical Pacific climate reconstructions over the Last Millennium, K.-S. Yun, A. Timmermann, Journal of Climate, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0524.1, 2019
  24. Reconciling opposing Walker circulation trends in observations and model projections, E.-S. Chung, A. Timmermann, B. J. Soden, K.-J. Ha, L, Shi, V, O. John, Nature Climate Change, doi: 10.1038/s41558-019-0446-4, 2019
  25. Sea ice variability in the southern Norwegian Sea during glacial Dansgaard-Oeschger climate cycles, H. Sadatzki, T. M. Dokken, S. M. P. Berben, F. Muschitiello, R. Stein, K. Fahl, L. Menviel, A. Timmermann, E. Jansen, Science Advances, 5(3), doi:10.1126/sciadv.aau6174, 2019
  26. Glacial changes in tropical climate amplified by the Indian Ocean, P. N. DiNezio, J. E. Tierney, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, A. Timmermann, T. Bhattacharya, N. Rosenbloom, E. Brady, Science Advances, 4(12), doi: 10.1126/sciadv.aat9658, 2018
  27. Drivers of future seasonal cycle changes in oceanic pCO2, M. A Gallego, A Timmermann, T Friedrich, R E. Zeebe, Biogeosciences, 15, 5315-5327, doi: 10.5194/bg-15-5315-2018, 2018
  28. Disentangling Impacts of Dynamic and Thermodynamic Components on Late Summer Rainfall Anomalies in East Asia, H Oh, K.-J Ha, A Timmermann, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,  0(0), 1-11, doi: 10.1029/2018JD028652, 2018
  29. El Niño–Southern Oscillation complexity, A Timmermann, S-I An, J-S Kug, F-F Jin, W Cai, A Capotondi, K Cobb, M Lengaigne, M J. McPhaden, M F. Stuecker, K Stein, A T. Wittenberg, K-S Yun, T Bayr, H-C Chen, Y Chikamoto, B Dewitte, D Dommenget, P Grothe, E Guilyardi, Y-G Ham, M Hayashi, S Ineson, D Kang, S Kim, WM Kim, J-Y Lee, T Li, J-J Luo, S McGregor, Y Planton, S Power, H Rashid, H-L Ren, A Santoso, K Takahashi, A Todd, G Wang, G Wang, R Xie, W-H Yang, S-W Yeh, J Yoon, E Zeller, X Zhang, Nature, 559, 535-545, doi: 10.1038/s41586-018-0252-6, 2018
  30. Did our species evolve in subdivided populations across Africa, and why does it matter?, E M.L. Scerri, M G. Thomas, A Manica, P Gunz, J T. Stock, C Stringer, M Grove, H S. Groucutt, A Timmermann, G. P Rightmire, F d’Errico, C A. Tryon, N A. Drake, A S. Brooks, R W. Dennell, R W. Dennell, R Durbin, B M. Henn, J L-Thorp, P deMenocal, M D. Petraglia, J C. Thompson, A Scally, L Chikhi, Trends in Ecology and Evolution, doi: 10.1016/j.tree.2018.05.005, 2018
  31. Local insolation changes enhance Antarctic interglacials: Insights from an 800,000-year ice sheet simulation with transient climate forcing, M Tigchelaar, A Timmermann, D Pollard, T Friedrich, M Heinemann, Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 495, 69-78, doi: 10.1016/j.epsl.2018.05.004, 2018
  32. Precession and atmospheric CO2 modulated variability of sea ice in the central Okhotsk Sea since 130,000 years ago, L Lo, S T. Belt, J Lattaud, T Friedrich, C Zeeden, S Schouten, L Smik, A Timmermann, P Cabedo-Sanz, J-J Huang, L Zhou, T-H Ou, Y-P Chang, L-C Wang, Y-M Chou, C-C Shen, M-T Chen, K-Y Wei, S-R Song, T-H Fang, S A. Gorbarenko, W-L Wang, T-Q Lee, H Elderfield, D A. Hodell, Earth and Planetary Science Letters, doi: 10.1016/j.epsl.2018.02.005, 2018
  33. Decadal Monsoon-ENSO relationships re-examined, KS Yun, A Timmermann, Geophysical Research Letters, 45 (4), doi: 10.1002/2017GL076912, 2018
  34. (Un)predictability of strong El Niño events, J Guckenheimer, A Timmermann, H Dijkstra, A Roberts, Dynamics and Statistics of the Climate System, doi: 10.1093/climsys/dzx004, 2017
  35. Multi-year predictability of climate, drought, and wildfire in southwestern North America, Y Chikamoto, A Timmermann, M Widlansky, MA Balmaseda, L Stott, Scientific Reports, 7, 6568, doi: 10.1038/s41598-017-06869-7, 2017
  36. Revisiting ENSO/Indian Ocean Dipole phase relationships, M Stuecker, A Timmermann, FF Jin, Y Chikamoto, W Zhang, Geophysical Research Letters, 44, doi: 10.1002/2016GL072308, 2017
  37. Nonlinear climate sensitivity and its implications for future greenhouse warming, T Friedrich, A Timmermann, M Tigchelaar, O Elison Timm, A Ganopolski, Science Advances, 2 (11), doi: 10.1126/sciadv.1501923, 2016
  38. Unraveling El Niño’s impact on the East Asian Monsoon and Yangtze River summer flooding, W Zhang, FF Jin, MF Stuecker, AT Wittenberg, A Timmermann, HL Ren, Geophysical Research Letters, 43 (21), doi 10.1002/2016GL071190, 2016
  39. Tropical Pacific SST drivers of recent Antarctic sea ice trends, A Purich, M England, W Cai, Y Chikamoto, A Timmermann, J Fyfe, Journal of Climate, doi: 10.1175 JCLI-D-16, 2016
  40. Strong middepth warming and weak radiocarbon imprints in the equatorial Atlantic during Heinrich 1 and Younger Dryas, S Weldeab, T Friedrich, A Timmermann, R Schneider Paleoceanography 31, doi: 10.1002/2016PA002957, 2016
  41. Potential tropical Atlantic impacts on Pacific decadal climate trends, Y Chikamoto, T Mochizuki, A Timmermann, M Kimoto, M Watanabe, Geophysical Research Letters 43, 10.1002/2016GL069544, 2016
  42. The climate response of the Indo‐Pacific warm pool to glacial sea level, PN Di Nezio, A Timmermann, JE Tierney, FF Jin, B Otto‐Bliesner, Paleoceanography, doi: 10.1002/2015PA002890, 2016
  43. Reply to “Comments on Combination Mode Dynamics of the Anomalous Northwest Pacific Anticyclone”, MF Stuecker, FF Jin, A Timmermann, S McGregor J. Climate, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0558, 2016
  44. Late Pleistocene climate drivers of early human migration A Timmermann, To. Friedrich, Nature, 538 (92-95), doi: 10.1038/nature19365, 2016
  45. Mixed-Mode Oscillations of El Niño–Southern Oscillation A Roberts, J Guckenheimer, E Widiasih, A Timmermann, CKRT Jones Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 73, 1755-1766, 2016
  46. Volcanic eruptions boost tropical Pacific biological productivity MO Chikamoto, A Timmermann, M Yoshimori, L F., A Laurian, Geophysical Research Letter 43, 10.1002/2015GL067359, 2016
  47. Millennial to orbital-scale variations of drought intensity in the Eastern Mediterranean M Stockhecke, A Timmermann, R Kipfer, GH Haug, O Kwiecien Quaternary Science Reviews 133, 77-95, 2016
  48. Charging El Niño with off-equatorial westerly wind events S McGregor, A Timmermann, FF Jin, WS Kessler Climate Dynamics 45, doi: 10.1007/s00382-015-2891-8, 2015
  49. The El Nino-Southern Oscillation frequency cascade, MF Stuecker F -F Jin, and A Timmermann, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 112, doi:10.1073/pnas.1508622112 2015
  50. Abrupt onset and prolongation of aragonite undersaturation events in the Southern Ocean, C Hauri, T Friedrich, A Timmermann, Nature Climate Change, 5, doi:10.1038/NCLIMATE2844, 2015
  51. Future extreme sea level seesaws in the tropical Pacific, M Widlansky, A Timmermann, W Cai, Science Advances, 1 (8), doi:10.1126/sciadv.1500560,  2015
  52. An Atlantic-Pacific ventilation seesaw across the last deglaciation, E Freeman, LC Skinner, A Tisserand, T Dokken, A Timmermann, Earth and Planetary Science Letters 424, 237-244, 2015
  53. Skilful multi-year predictions of tropical trans-basin climate variability, Y Chikamoto, A Timmermann, JJ Luo, T Mochizuki, M Kimoto, Nature Communications, doi: 10.1038/ncomms7869, 2015
  54.  The response of ENSO flavors to mid-Holocene climate: Implications for proxy interpretation, C Karamperidou, PM Di Nezio, A Timmermann, FF Jin, KM Cobb, Paleoceanography, 30, doi, 10.1002/2014PA002742, 2015
  55.  Combination Mode Dynamics of the Anomalous Northwest Pacific Anticyclone, MF Stuecker, FF Jin, A Timmermann, S McGregor, Journal of Climate 28 (3), 1093-1111, 3, 2015
  56. Decadal predictability of soil water, vegetation, and wildfire frequency over North America, Y Chikamoto, A Timmermann, S Stevenson, P DiNezio, S Langford, Climate Dynamics, 5, doi: 10.1007/s00382-015-2469-5, 2015
  57. Abrupt changes in the southern extent of North Atlantic DeepWater during Dansgaard-Oeschger events, J Gottschalk, LC Skinner, S Misra, C Waelbroeck, L Menviel, A. Timmermann, Nature Geoscience, doi:10.1038/ngeo2558, 2015
  58. Mechanisms rectifying the annual mean response of tropical Atlantic rainfall to precessional forcing, M Tigchelaar, A Timmermann, Climate Dynamics, doi: 10.1007/s00382-015-2835-3, 2015
  59. Tropospheric Biennial Oscillation (TBO) indistinguishable from white noise, M Stuecker, A Timmermann, J Yoon, FF Jin, Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1002/2015GL065878, 2015
  60. ENSO and greenhouse warming, Wenju Cai, Agus Santoso, Guojian Wang, Sang-Wook Yeh, Soon-Il An, Kim M. Cobb, Mat Collins, Eric Guilyardi, Fei-Fei Jin, Jong-Seong Kug, Matthieu Lengaigne, Michael J. McPhaden, Ken Takahashi, Axel Timmermann, Gabriel Vecchi, Masahiro Watanabe, Lixin Wu, Nature Climate Change 5, 849-859, 2015
  61. Increased frequency of extreme La Niña events under greenhouse warming, W Cai, G Wang, A Santoso, MJ McPhaden, L Wu, FF Jin, A Timmermann, M Collins, G Vecchi, M Lengaigne, MH England, D Dommenget, K Takahashi and E Guilyardi, Nature Climate Change, doi: 10.1038/NCLIMATE2492, 2014
  62. The Holocene temperature conundrum, Z Liu, J Zhu, Y Rosenthal, X Zhang, BL Otto-Bliesner, A Timmermann, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 111 (34), E3501-E3505, 2014
  63. Evolution and Forcing Mechanisms of El Niño over the Last 21,000, Z Liu, Z Lu, X Wen, BL Otto-Bliesner, A Timmermann, K. M. Cobb, Nature, 515, 550-553, 2014.
  64. Millennial-scale Atlantic/East Pacific sea surface temperature linkages during the last 100,000 years, N Dubois, M Kienast, SS Kienast, A Timmermann, Earth and Planetary Science Letters 396, 134-142, 2014
  65. Assessing divergent SST behavior during the last 21 ka derived from alkenones and G. ruber Mg/Ca in the Equatorial Pacific, A Timmermann, J Sachs, O Elison Timm, Paleoceanography, DOI: 10.1002/2013PA002598, 2014
  66. Millennial-scale variability in Antarctic ice-sheet discharge during the last deglaciation, ME Weber, PU Clark, G Kuhn, A Timmermann, D Sprenk, R Gladstone, Nature 510, 134-138, 2014
  67. The role of soil processes in δ18O terrestrial climate proxies, LC Kanner, NH Buenning, LD Stott, A Timmermann, D Noone, Global Biogeochemical Cycles 28 (3), 239-252, 2014
  68. Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus, MH England, S McGregor, P Spence, GA Meehl, A Timmermann, W Cai, Nature Climate Change 4 (3), 222-227, 2014
  69. Modeling Obliquity and CO2 Effects on Southern Hemisphere Climate during the Past 408 ka, A Timmermann, T Friedrich, OE Timm, MO Chikamoto, A Abe-Ouchi, Journal of Climate 27 (5), 1863-1875, 2014
  70. CO2 radiative forcing and Intertropical Convergence Zone influences on western Pacific warm pool climate over the past 400 ka, K Tachikawa, A Timmermann, L Vidal, C Sonzogni, OE Timm, Quaternary Science Reviews 86, 24-34, 2014
  71. Using palaeo-climate comparisons to constrain future projections in CMIP5, GA Schmidt, JD Annan, PJ Bartlein, BI Cook, E Guilyardi, JC Hargreaves, SP Harrison, M Kageyama, AN LeGrande, B Konecky, S Lovejoy, ME Mann, V Masson-Delmotte, C Risi, D Thompson, A Timmermann, LB Tremblay, and P Yiou, Climate of the Past 10 (1), 221-250, 2014
  72. Deglacial ice/sheet meltdown: orbital pacemaking and CO2 effects, M Heinemann, A Timmermann, OE Timm, F Saito, A Abe-Ouchi, Climate of the Past 10, 1567–1579, 2014
  73. An interhemispheric tropical sea level seesaw due to El Niño Taimasa, MJ Widlansky, A Timmermann, S McGregor, MF Stuecker, W Cai, Journal of Climate 27 (3), 1070-1081, 2014
  74. Dynamics of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Part 2: Forcing by winds and buoyancy, F Schloesser, R Furue, JP McCreary, A Timmermann, Progress in Oceanography 120, 154-176, 2014
  75. Increasing frequency of extreme El Niño events due to greenhouse warming, W Cai, S Borlace, M Lengaigne, P Van Rensch, M Collins, G Vecchi, A Timmermann, Nature Climate Change 4, 111-116, 2014
  76. Hindcasting the continuum of Dansgaard/Oeschger variability: mechanisms, patterns and timing, L Menviel, A Timmermann, T Friedrich, MH England, Climate of the Past 10 (1), 63-77, 2014
  77. Recent Walker circulation strengthening and Pacific cooling amplified by Atlantic warming, S McGregor, A Timmermann, MF Stuecker, MH England, M Merrifield, Nature Climate Change 4, doi:10.1038/nclimate2330, 2014
  78. ENSO seasonal synchronization theory, K Stein, A Timmermann, N Schneider, FF Jin, MF Stuecker, Journal of Climate, 27, 5285–5310, 2014
  79. Improved Representation of Tropical Pacific Ocean/Atmosphere Dynamics in an Intermediate Complexity Climate Model, RL Sriver, A Timmermann, ME Mann, K Keller, H Goosse, Journal of Climate 27 (1), 168-185, 2014
  80. Near collapse of the meridional SST gradient in the eastern equatorial Pacific during Heinrich Stadial 1, SS Kienast, T Friedrich, N Dubois, PS Hill, A Timmermann, AC Mix, , Paleoceanography 28 (4), 663-674, 2013
  81. Zonal phase propagation of ENSO sea surface temperature anomalies: Revisited, J Boucharel, A Timmermann, FF Jin Geophysical Research Letters 40 (15), 4048-4053, 2013
  82. Information from paleoclimate archives. In Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeV Masson-Delmotte, M Schulz, A Abe-Ouchi, J Beer, A Ganopolski, JF González Rouco, E Jansen, K Lambeck, J Luterbacher, T Naish, T Osborn, B Otto-Bliesner, T Quinn, R Ramesh, M Rojas, X Shao, and A Timmermann, 2013:. T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Doschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex, and P.M. Midgley, Eds. Cambridge University Press, 383-464, doi::10.1017/CBO9781107415324.013.
  83. Inferred changes in El Niño-Southern Oscillation variance over the past six centuries, S McGregor, A Timmermann, MH England, O Elison Timm, AT Wittenberg, Climate of the Past 9 2269-2284, 2013.
  84. A combination mode of the annual cycle and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, MF Stuecker, A Timmermann, FF Jin, S McGregor, HL Ren, Nature Geoscience, 6, 540–544, 2013
  85. 37. Estimated strength of the Atlantic overturning circulation during the last deglaciation, SP Ritz, TF Stocker, JO Grimalt, L Menviel, A Timmermann, Nature Geoscience, 6, 208–212, 2013
  86. Links between tropical rainfall and North Atlantic climate during the last glacial period, G Deplazes, A Lueckge, LC Peterson, A Timmermann, Y Hamann, KA Hughen, Nature Geoscience, 6, 213–217 ,2013
  87. Changes in South Pacific rainfall bands in a warming climate, MJ Widlansky, A Timmermann, K Stein, S McGregor, N Schneider, MH England, Nature Climate Change, 3, 417–423 , 2012
  88. Millennial-scale glacial meltwater pulses and their effect on the spatiotemporal benthic d18O variability, T Friedrich, A Timmermann, Paleoceanography 27 (3), doi: 10.1029/2012PA002330, 2012
  89. Dynamics of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Part 1: Buoyancy-forced response, F Schloesser, R Furue, JP McCreary Jr, A Timmermann, Progress in Oceanography 101 (1), 33-62, 2012
  90. More extreme swings of the South Pacific convergence zone due to greenhouse warming, W Cai, M Lengaigne, S Borlace, M Collins, T Cowan, MJ McPhaden, A Timmermann , Nature 488 (7411), 365-369,  2012
  91. The Effect of the South Pacific Convergence Zone on the Termination of El Niño Events and the Meridional Asymmetry of ENSO, S McGregor, A Timmermann, N Schneider, MF Stuecker, MH England, Journal of Climate 25 (16), 5566-5586, 2012
  92. Role of the Bering Strait on the hysteresis of the ocean conveyor belt circulation and glacial climate stability, A Hu, GA Meehl, W Han, A Timmermann, B Otto-Bliesner, Z Liu, WM Washington , Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 109 (17), 6417-6422, 2012
  93. Climate change dynamics of present and past in the North Pacific and its northern marginal seas, N Harada, K Takahashi, A Timmermann, T Sakamoto, Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography 61, 1-3, 2012
  94. Sea surface temperature changes in the Okhotsk Sea and adjacent North Pacific during the last glacial maximum and deglaciation, N Harada, M Sato, O Seki, A Timmermann, H Moossen, J Bendle, Y Nakamura, K , Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography 61, 93-105, 2012
  95. Variability in North Pacific intermediate and deep water ventilation during Heinrich events in two coupled climate models, MO Chikamoto, L Menviel, A Abe-Ouchi, R Ohgaito, A Timmermann, Y Okazaki, N , Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography 61, 114-126, 2012
  96. Removing the North Pacific halocline: effects on global climate, ocean circulation and the carbon cycle, L Menviel, A Timmermann, O Elison Timm, A Mouchet, A Abe-Ouchi, MO Chikamoto , Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography 61, 106-113, 2012
  97. Quantifying the ocean’s role in glacial CO2 reductions, MO Chikamoto, A Abe-Ouchi, A Oka, R Ohgaito, A Timmermann, Climate of the Past 8 (2), 545-563, 2012
  98. Regional Patterns of Tropical Indo-Pacific Climate Change: Evidence of the Walker Circulation Weakening, H Tokinaga, SP Xie, A Timmermann, S McGregor, T Ogata, H Kubota, YM Okumura, Journal of Climate 25 (5), 1689-1710, 2012
  99. Enhanced warming over the global subtropical western boundary currents, L Wu, W Cai, L Zhang, H Nakamura, A Timmermann, T Joyce, MJ McPhaden, M  Nature Climate Change 2 (3), 161-166, 2012
  100. Detecting regional anthropogenic trends in ocean acidification against natural variability, T Friedrich, A Timmermann, A Abe-Ouchi, NR Bates, MO Chikamoto, MJ Church , Nature Climate Change 2 (3), 167-171, 2012
  101. Impacts of ocean gateway and basin width on tertiary tropical climate variability in a prototype model, SI An, JH Park, BM Kim, A Timmermann, FF Jin, Theoretical and Applied Climatology 107 (1-2), 155-164, 2012
  102. The effect of topography-enhanced diapycnal mixing on ocean and atmospheric circulation and marine biogeochemistry, T Friedrich, A Timmermann, T Decloedt, DS Luther, A Mouchet, Ocean Modelling 39 (3), 262-274, 2011
  103. Phase synchronization of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation with the annual cycle, K Stein, A Timmermann, N Schneider, Physical Review Letters 107 (12), 128501, 2011
  104. Reduced interannual rainfall variability in East Africa during the last ice age, C Wolff, GH Haug, A Timmermann, JSS Damst_, A Brauer, DM Sigman, MA Cane, D , Science 333 (6043), 743-747, 2011
  105. Evidence for 800years of North Atlantic multi-decadal variability from a Puerto Rican speleothem, A Winter, T Miller, Y Kushnir, A Sinha, A Timmermann, MR Jury, C Gallup, H , Earth and Planetary Science Letters 308 (1), 23-28, 2011
  106. Deconstructing the Last Glacial termination: the role of millennial and orbital-scale forcings, L Menviel, A Timmermann, OE Timm, A Mouchet, Quaternary Science Reviews 30 (9), 1155-1172, 2011
  107. The effect of explosive tropical volcanism on ENSO, S McGregor, A Timmermann, Journal of Climate 24 (8), 2178-2191, 2011
  108. Interactions between marine biota and ENSO: a conceptual model analysis, M Heinemann, A Timmermann, U Feudel, Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics 18 (1), 29-40, 2011
  109. Hypothesized link between glacial/interglacial atmospheric CO2 cycles and storage/release of CO2-rich fluids from deep-sea sediments, L Stott, A Timmermann, Geophysical Monograph Series 193, 123-138, 2011
  110. Promotion of glacial ice sheet buildup 60?115 kyr BP by precessionally paced Northern Hemispheric meltwater pulses, A Timmermann, J Knies, OE Timm, A Abe-Ouchi, T Friedrich, Paleoceanography 25 (4), 2010
  111. Climate and biogeochemical response to a rapid melting of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet during interglacials and implications for future climate, L Menviel, A Timmermann, OE Timm, A Mouchet, Paleoceanography 25 (4), 2010
  112. Geochemical and climate modeling evidence for Holocene aridification in Hawaii: dynamic response to a weakening equatorial cold tongue, J Uchikawa, BN Popp, JE Schoonmaker, A Timmermann, SJ Lorenz, Quaternary Science Reviews 29 (23), 3057-3066, 2010
  113. Seasonal Synchronization of ENSO Events in a Linear Stochastic Model, K Stein, N Schneider, A Timmermann, FF Jin, Journal of Climate 23 (21), 5629-5643, 2010
  114. Warming seas in the Coral Triangle: coral reef vulnerability and management implications, E McLeod, R Moffitt, A Timmermann, R Salm, L Menviel, MJ Palmer, ER Selig , Coastal Management 38 (5), 518-539, 2010
  115. The mechanism behind internally generated centennial-to-millennial scale climate variability in an earth system model of intermediate complexity, T Friedrich, A Timmermann, L Menviel, O Elison Timm, A Mouchet, DM Roche, Geoscientific Model Development 3 (2), 377-389, 2010
  116. Wind effects on past and future regional Sea level trends in the Southern Indo-Pacific, A Timmermann, S McGregor, FF Jin, Journal of Climate 23 (16), 4429-4437, 2010
  117. Deepwater formation in the North Pacific during the last glacial termination, Y Okazaki, A Timmermann, L Menviel, N Harada, A Abe-Ouchi, MO Chikamoto, A , Science 329 (5988), 200-204, 2010
  118. Early Pliocene increase in thermohaline overturning: A precondition for the development of the modern equatorial Pacific cold tongue, S Steph, R Tiedemann, M Prange, J Groeneveld, M Schulz, A Timmermann, D , Paleoceanography 25 (2), 2010
  119. The impact of global warming on the tropical Pacific Ocean and El Niño, M Collins, SI An, W Cai, A Ganachaud, E Guilyardi, FF Jin, M Jochum, M Lengaigne, S Power, A Timmermann, Nature Geoscience 3 (6), 391-397, 2010
  120. Reconstructing surface temperature changes over the past 600 years using climate model simulations with data assimilation, H Goosse, E Crespin, A de Montety, ME Mann, H Renssen, A Timmermann, Journal of Geophysical Research 115 (D9), D09108, 2010
  121. Mechanisms for the Onset of the African Humid Period and Sahara Greening 14.5-11 ka BP, Timm, P Koehler, A Timmermann, L Menviel, Journal of Climate 23 (10), 2612-2633, 2010
  122. Impact of diurnal atmosphere-ocean coupling on tropical climate simulations using a coupled GCM, YG Ham, JS Kug, IS Kang, FF Jin, A Timmermann, Climate Dynamics 34 (6), 905-917, 2010
  123. The inverse effect of annual-mean state and annual-cycle changes on ENSO, SI An, YG Ham, JS Kug, A Timmermann, J Choi, IS Kang, Journal of Climate 23 (5), 1095-1110, 2010
  124. Towards a quantitative understanding of millennial-scale Antarctic warming events, A Timmermann, L Menviel, Y Okumura, A Schilla, U Merkel, O Timm, A Hu, B , Quaternary Science Reviews 29 (1), 74-85, 2010
  125. A unified proxy for ENSO and PDO variability since 1650, S McGregor, A Timmermann, O Timm, Climate of the Past 6 (1), 1-17, 2010
  126. Orbital modulation of millennial-scale climate variability in an earth system model of intermediate complexity, T Friedrich, A Timmermann, O Timm, A Mouchet, DM Roche, Climate of the Past Discussions 5 (4), 2019-2051, 2009
  127. What Drives Climate Flip-Flops?, A Timmermann, L Menviel, Science 325 (5938), 273-274, 2009
  128. Effects of biologically induced differential heating in an eddy/permitting coupled ocean-ecosystem model, U Loeptien, C Eden, A Timmermann, H Dietze, Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans (1978-2012) 114 (C6) , 2009
  129. Radiocarbon age anomaly at intermediate water depth in the Pacific Ocean during the last deglaciation, L Stott, J Southon, A Timmermann, A Koutavas, Paleoceanography 24 (2), doi: 10.1029/2008PA001690, 2009
  130. The Roles of CO2 and Orbital Forcing in Driving Southern Hemispheric Temperature Variations during the Last 21 000 Yr, A Timmermann, O Timm, L Stott, L Menviel, Journal of Climate 22 (7), 1626-1640, 2009
  131. North Pacific climate response to freshwater forcing in the subarctic North Atlantic: Oceanic and atmospheric pathways, YM Okumura, C Deser, A Hu, A Timmermann, SP Xie, Journal of Climate 22 (6), 1424-1445, 2009
  132. A mid-Holocene transition in the nitrogen dynamics of the western equatorial Pacific: Evidence of a deepening thermocline? M Kienast, MF Lehmann, A Timmermann, E Galbraith, T Bolliet, A Holbourn, C , Geophysical Research Letters 35 (23), L23610, 2008
  133. Climate and marine carbon cycle response to changes in the strength of the Southern Hemispheric westerlies, L Menviel, A Timmermann, A Mouchet, O Timm, Paleoceanography 23 (4), 2008
  134. Influences of Atlantic Climate Change on the Tropical Pacific via the Central American Isthmus, SP Xie, Y Okumura, T Miyama, A Timmermann, Journal of Climate 21 (15), 3914-3928, 2008
  135. On the definition of seasons in paleoclimate simulations with orbital forcing, Timm, A Timmermann, A Abe-Ouchi, F Saito, T Segawa, Paleoceanography 23 (2), PA2221, 2008
  136. Meridional reorganizations of marine and terrestrial productivity during Heinrich events, L Menviel, A Timmermann, A Mouchet, O Timm, Paleoceanography 23 (1), 2008
  137. Effects of Salt Compensation on the Climate Model Response in Simulations of Large Changes of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, TF Stocker, A Timmermann, M Renold, O Timm, Journal of Climate 20 (24), 5912-5928, 2007
  138. Eastern tropical Pacific hydrologic changes during the past 27,000 years from D/H ratios in alkenones, K Pahnke, JP Sachs, L Keigwin, A Timmermann, SP Xie, Paleoceanography 22 (4), 2007
  139. Southern hemisphere and deep-sea warming led deglacial atmospheric CO2 rise and tropical warming, L Stott, A Timmermann, R Thunell, Science 318 (5849), 435-438, 2007
  140. Tropical air-sea interactions accelerate the recovery of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation after a major shutdown, U Krebs, A Timmermann, Journal of Climate 20 (19), 4940-4956 , 2007
  141. The influence of a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation on ENSO, A Timmermann, Y Okumura, SI An, A Clement, B Dong, E Guilyardi, A Hu, JH , Journal of Climate 20 (19), 4899-4919, 2007
  142. Simulation of the Last 21 000 Years Using Accelerated Transient Boundary Conditions, Timm, A Timmermann, Journal of Climate 20 (17), 4377-4401, 2007
  143. The effect of orbital forcing on the mean climate and variability of the tropical Pacific, A Timmermann, SJ Lorenz, SI An, A Clement, SP Xie, Journal of Climate 20 (16), 4147-4159, 2007
  144.  Modulation of the bipolar seesaw in the Southeast Pacific during Termination 1, F Lamy, J Kaiser, HW Arz, D Hebbeln, U Ninnemann, O Timm, A Timmermann, JR , Earth and Planetary Science Letters 259 (3), 400-413, 2007
  145.  Fast advective recovery of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation after a Heinrich event, U Krebs, A Timmermann, Paleoceanography 22 (1), doi: 10.1029/2005PA001259, 2007
  146.  The Influence of ENSO on the Generation of Decadal Variability in the North Pacific, SI An, JS Kug, A Timmermann, IS Kang, O Timm, Journal of Climate 20 (4), 667-680, 2007
  147.  Ensemble-mean dynamics of the ENSO recharge oscillator under state-dependent stochastic forcing, FF Jin, L Lin, A Timmermann, J Zhao, Geophysical Research Letters 34 (3), 2007
  148. Using paleoclimate proxy-data to select optimal realisations in an ensemble of simulations of the climate of the past millennium, H Goosse, H Renssen, A Timmermann, RS Bradley, ME Mann, Climate Dynamics 27 (2-3), 165-184, 2006
  149. Sub-Milankovitch cycles in periplatform carbonates from the early Pliocene Great Bahama Bank, L Reuning, JJG Reijmer, C Betzler, A Timmermann, S Steph, Paleoceanography 21 (1), 2006
  150. Predictability of coupled processes, A Timmermann, FF Jin, Predictability of Weather and Climate, 251-274, 2006
  151. An initial intercomparison of atmospheric and oceanic climatology for the ICE-5G and ICE-4G models of LGM paleotopography, F Justino, A Timmermann, U Merkel, WR Peltier, Journal of Climate 19 (1), 3-14, 2006
  152. The origin of the” European Medieval Warm Period”, H Goosse, O Arzel, J Luterbacher, ME Mann, H Renssen, N Riedwyl, A Timmermann, E Xoplaki, H Wanner, Climate of the Past 2, 99-113, 2006
  153. Mechanisms for millennial-scale global synchronization during the last glacial period, A Timmermann, U Krebs, F Justino, H Goosse, T Ivanochko, Paleoceanography 20 (4), doi: 10.1029/2004PA0010902005, 2005
  154. Synoptic Reorganization of Atmospheric Flow during the Last Glacial Maximum, F Justino, A Timmermann, U Merkel, EP Souza, Journal of climate 18 (15), 2826-2846, 2005
  155. ENSO Suppression due to Weakening of the North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation, A Timmermann, SI An, U Krebs, H Goosse, Journal of Climate 18 (16), 3122-3139, 2005
  156. Internal and forced climate variability during the last millennium: a model-data comparison using ensemble simulations, H Goosse, H Renssen, A Timmermann, RS Bradley, Quaternary Science Reviews 24 (12), 1345-1360, 2005
  157. Biophysical feedbacks in the tropical Pacific, B Marzeion, A Timmermann, R Murtugudde, FF Jin, Journal of Climate 18 (1), 58-70, 2005
  158. An organizing center for thermohaline excitability, J Abshagen, A Timmermann, Journal of Physical Oceanography 34 (12), 2756-2760, 2004
  159. Modeling evidence for enhanced El Niño-Southern Oscillation amplitude during the Last Glacial Maximum, SI An, A Timmermann, L Bejarano, FF Jin, F Justino, Z Liu, AW Tudhope,Paleoceanography 19 (4), 2004
  160. Glacial-interglacial contrast in climate variability at centennial-to-millennial timescales: observations and conceptual model, M Schulz, A Paul, A Timmermann, Quaternary Science Reviews 23 (20), 2219-2230, 2004
  161. Nonlinear dimensionality reduction in climate data, AJ Gamez, CS Zhou, A Timmermann, J Kurths, Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics 11 (3), 393-398, 2004
  162. Surface temperature control in the North and tropical Pacific during the last glacial maximum, A Timmermann, F Justino, FF Jin, U Krebs, H Goosse, Climate dynamics 23 (3-4), 353-370, 2004
  163. Strong hemispheric coupling of glacial climate through freshwater discharge and ocean circulation, R Knutti, J Flueckiger, TF Stocker, A Timmermann, Nature 430 (7002), 851-856, 2004
  164. The influence of the Galapagos Islands on tropical temperatures, currents and the generation of tropical instability waves, C Eden, A Timmermann, Geophysical Research Letters 31 (15), 2004
  165. Intensification of the annual cycle in the tropical Pacific due to greenhouse warming, A Timmermann, FF Jin, M Collins, Geophysical Research Letters 31 (12), 2004
  166. Is the wind stress forcing essential for the meridional overturning circulation?, A Timmermann, H Goosse, Geophysical Research Letters 31 (4), 2004
  167.  Coherent resonant millennial-scale climate oscillations triggered by massive meltwater pulses, A Timmermann, H Gildor, M Schulz, E Tziperman, Journal of Climate 16 (15), 2569-2585, 2003
  168. Decadal ENSO amplitude modulations: A nonlinear paradigm, A Timmermann, Global and Planetary Change 37 (1), 135-156, 2003
  169. Potential feedbacks between Pacific Ocean ecosystems and interdecadal climate variations, AJ Miller, MA Alexander, GJ Boer, F Chai, K Denman, DJ Erickson III, R Frouin, A. Gabruc, EA Laws, MR Lewis, Z Liu, R Murtugudde, S Nakamoto, DJ Neilson, JR Norris, JC Ohlmann, RI Perry, N Schneider, KM Shell, A Timmermann, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 84 (5), 617-633, 2003
  170. Strong El Niño events and nonlinear dynamical heating, FF Jin, SI An, A Timmermann, J Zhao, Geophysical research letters 30 (3), 20-1-20-1, 2003
  171. Cyclic Markov Chains with an Application to ENSO Predictability, R Pasmanter, A Timmermann, Nonlinear Processes Geophysics, 201-214, 2003
  172. A nonlinear theory for El Niño bursting, A Timmermann, FF Jin, J Abshagen, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 60 (1), 152-165, 2003
  173. Relaxation oscillators in concert: A framework for climate change at millennial timescales during the late Pleistocene, M Schulz, A Paul, A Timmermann, Geophysical Research Letters 29 (24), 2193, 2002
  174. Phytoplankton influences on tropical climate, A Timmermann, FF Jin, Geophysical Research Letters 29 (23), 2104, 2002
  175. Comments on “Noise-induced transitions in a simplified model of the thermohaline circulation” AH Monahan, A Timmermann, G Lohmann, Journal of Physical Oceanography 32 (3), 1112-1116, 2002
  176. A nonlinear mechanism for decadal El Niño amplitude changes, A Timmermann, FF Jin, Geophysical Research Letters 29 (1), 1003, 2002
  177. Empirical dynamical system modeling of ENSO using nonlinear inverse techniques, A Timmermann, HU Voss, R Pasmanter, Journal of Physical Oceanography 31 (6), 1579-1598, 2001
  178. Changes of ENSO stability due to greenhouse warming, A Timmermann, Geophysical Research Letters 28 (10), 2061-2064, 2001
  179. . Noise-induced transitions in a simplified model of the thermohaline circulation, A Timmermann, G Lohmann, Journal of Physical Oceanography 30 (8), 1891-1900, 2000
  180. Modes of climate variability as simulated by a coupled general circulation model. Part I: ENSO-like climate variability and its low-frequency modulation, A Timmermann, M Latif, A Groetzner, R Voss, Climate Dynamics 15 (8), 605-618, 1999
  181.  Interannual to decadal predictability in a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model, A Groetzner, M Latif, A Timmermann, R Voss, Journal of Climate 12 (8), 2607-2624, 1999
  182.  Detecting the nonstationary response of ENSO to greenhouse warming, A Timmermann, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 56 (14), 2313-2325, 1999
  183.  Increased El Niño frequency in a climate model forced by future greenhouse warming, A Timmermann, J Oberhuber, A Bacher, M Esch, M Latif, E Roeckner, Nature 398 (6729), 694-697, 1999
  184.  Northern hemispheric interdecadal variability: a coupled air-sea mode, A Timmermann, M Latif, R Voss, A Groetzner, Journal of Climate 11 (8), 1906-1931, 1998
  185.  Thermal photon production in heavy-ion collisions, N Arbex, U Ornik, M Pluemer, A Timmermann, RM Weiner, Physics Letters B 345 (3), 307-312, 1995
  186.  Photon interferometry of quark-gluon dynamics reexamined, A Timmermann, M Pluemer, L Razumov, RM Weiner, Physical Review C 5