Storyline simulations of extreme events using spectral nudging

Seminar by Prof. Thomas Jung from University of Bremen/ Alfred Wegener Institute

09 May 2022
KST 14:00 – 15:00

The Seminar is being held in Room 1010 (Jasmin) – Integrated mechanical engineering building. Click here for the campus map.

In this talk, we present results from spectral nudging experiments with a coupled climate model. These experiments aim to address the question how recent extreme events would unfold in +2K and +4K warmer climates (storyline scenarios) and how they have been impacted by climate change (storyline attribution). By illustrating the method for some recent high-profile extreme events, it is argued that storyline simulations help to make climate change more tangible by relating to events that people have directly experienced and by “separating” between dynamical and thermodynamic drivers of change. Furthermore, it is shown that by nudging the observed evolution of the jet stream to ERA5 data, evaluating coupled climate models against observational data, especially those from field campaigns, becomes much more effective. Therefore, spectral nudging provides a powerful approach to diagnosing the origin of model error, thus guiding model development.