Earth System Predictability on Interannual to Decadal Timescales: Concepts and Application

Seminar by Prof. Yoshimitsu Chikamoto from Department of Plants, Soils and Climate, Utah State University

19 December 2024
KST 16:00 – 18:00

The Seminar is being held in Room 1010 (Jasmin) – Integrated mechanical engineering building. Click here for the campus map.

Forecasting Earth system processes on interannual to decadal timescales presents both significant challenges and critical opportunities, with implications extending beyond climate dynamics to societal impacts. This seminar explores foundational concepts using a simplified model and practical applications of Earth system predictability, leveraging insights from fully coupled Earth system models. A central focus will be on the interplay between internal variability and externally forced components. Key topics include decadal climate prediction approaches, the influence of climate modes such as ENSO and PDO, and the development of scientific hypotheses to enhance our understanding of predictability. Practical applications to water resource management will be emphasized, particularly in relation to Colorado River forecasts. The seminar will also cover partial ocean data assimilation experiments, demonstrating their value in improving prediction accuracy. Finally, I will provide an overview of ongoing research aimed at advancing Earth system prediction frameworks to better inform decision-making in a changing climate.